Prices are up!

We have waited since 2006 to be able to write that headline.  Yes there have been little spurts of improvement during those years (remember the tax credit of 2009?) but nothing that was headline inducing or that in hindsight really signaled much of anything other than tax breaks do work.  But this market is different and truly is making news – and some of the news is even accurate!  For those who prefer we bottom line it, the price per square foot of homes sold has moved upward at an average of 24% since September 2011.  Price per square foot is the most accurate short term tracking number.  24% is a rather amazing number by any standard, but particularly so as the national news is still reporting declines in housing values for our area.  As Mark Twain said there are “lies, damned lies, and statistics” – so what is really going on?

Remember that housing is a local issue, not a national issue.  So any discussion of our marketplace by necessity must be confined to our marketplace. So let’s look at what is a fact, the price per square foot is up by an average 24% since September.  That is a fact.  What does that mean for the home seller or buyer in this market?

First to the seller:  the message here is that the market has improved greatly and for those sidelined from selling due to value issues, it may be time to check current pricing in your neighborhood.  Does that mean every home has gone up 24%?  No.  As could be predicted, price point has something to do with the movement in values.  The lower prices (let’s say $500,000 and under) show the really significant price appreciation.  Above 500K we see a different picture with price per square foot showing both less of a drop and less upward movement as well.

Also, another factor that is slanting the numbers a bit is the dropped numbers of homes coming to market. This is one of the factors contributing to the price rise – reduced supply.  In our opinion this is the untold story of the market.  New listings coming on the market continue to hit record lows since 2011(when that statistic first began being kept).  The dropped supply is actually affecting the number of sales – Phoenix single family homes are down 18% compared to 2011 the same time of year.  Mesa sales are down 10% and Glendale is down 15%.  However, Scottsdale is up 5% over last year.  Because Scottsdale homes are more expensive on a per square foot basis, this is affecting the monthly average appreciation just by virtue of throwing higher priced homes in to the mix!  So although appreciation is on average 24% since September, that number may be a little bit higher than “reality” given the drop in lower priced sales and the increase in the higher priced sales.

To state the obvious, the best way to determine your current market value for your home is to request a Market Analysis from a competent agent (I highly recommend us).  Even then with supply and demand in flux and pricing shifting, the value is a moving target these days. A “range of value” for your home is probably the best you will do on determining pricing without actually placing your home on the market.

To buyers:  prices today are likely lower than tomorrow’s values.  If you are a buyer, be prepared for the frustration that goes with rising values, limited supply and a strong seller market.  Currently, most homes are receiving multiple offers and cash offers are abundant and often winning over financed offers.  Asking prices in the lower price ranges in particular, are just starting points for the offers as most offers will be above list price.  Those who say “I don’t want to play a bidding game”  need to understand that avoidance of this market and the competition for homes means that you are willing to pay more down the road for the benefit of being the sole bidder.

Rising prices at some point will dampen demand – the real question is how high and how long until we hit that point.  That is the million dollar question.  As the future market unfolds we will attempt to answer it for you.  As always, we are here to help you with the challenges this market presents.

 

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(Mostly Wendy)