17th Annual Holiday Lights and Petting Zoo

December 13, 2014 by · Leave a Comment 

christmas smallerChristmas lights galore, a snowy Christmas Village filled with 100’s of homes, businesses and 1000’s of people and animals.  You will see one of the largest collections of Nativity scenes in the Southwest, ranging from life size to ½ inch tall.

And the Main Event…The Animals!  Stop by and pet a donkey!  We have 5 and 3 of them are minis, 8 goats and 4 of those are minis, and also our new cow Jax.  He’s so sweet!!!

Live music and caroling, fun for the whole family from 2 to 92.  Something for everyone!

Come by and make us a Christmas Tradition like so many other Arizona families have.  We are an Annual Holiday Pilgrimage for families all other the United States and Canada.  Stop by and see why.

Listed on AZ Central’s “Tour of Lights”, featured on ABC 15 News, CBS 5 News, 3TV News, My Fox 10 News and NCB 12 News.

Winner of “Best Christmas Display to Visit” by Scottsdale Independent, featured in the Arizona Republic Newspaper, 1st Place Prize Winner for best display by Paradise Valley Independent & Don Morley’s Christmas Lights Tour DVD, and Best Religious Display.

Location:  4345 E Carol Ann Lane, Phoenix, AZ 85032.  That’s ½ mile North of Greenway & ½ miles South of Bell Rd.

When:  Saturday, December 13th through Monday, December 22nd, from 6pm – 9pm nightly for 10 nights!

More Questions, email ChristmasOnCarolAnn@cox.net

 

Have a very Merry Christmas and a safe New Year!

Laura Mason

Salvation Army Christmas Eve

December 6, 2014 by · Leave a Comment 

On Christmas Eve, December 24th from 11am – 1pm, I will be ringing the bell in front of Fry’s at Tatum & Shea.  Hope to see you there!Russ salvation army

Behind the Headlines – the Market is Stable

December 4, 2014 by · Leave a Comment 

Very few news stories can be built around “everything is just fine”. So while we don’t expect to see that in the headlines, it nonetheless is the story of our marketplace. Given the volatility of the real estate market from 2004- 2012, it is understandable that people are slow to believe that normal has returned. Michael Orr of the Cromford Report confirms this so beautifully:

“If we look exclusively at:

  • single family homes
  • in Maricopa County
  • listed under $500,000

Then there has hardly been any change in pricing at all over the last 10 months. Here are the specific numbers … (price per square foot)

  • Feb $115.82
  • Mar $116.09
  • Apr $115.23
  • May $115.75
  • Jun $116.04
  • Jul $115.99
  • Aug $115.95
  • Sep $115.95
  • Oct $116.31
  • Nov $115.82 …

This is quite remarkable stability.”

 

Scared to buy or sell because prices are “crashing”? They aren’t. The water is safe.

Tis the Season

November 8, 2014 by · Leave a Comment 

seasons-greetings“Tis the Season” has a unique meaning to those of us in real estate. As the holidays approach, the “seasonal effect” goes in to play – and this year is proving no exception.  The seasonal effect refers to the calendar pattern that real estate tends to follow – year in and year out.  This classic pattern shows a slowing of demand (less buyers buying) after the spring buying season (Feb-June) which creates a buildup of homes for sale in the back half of the year.

As we have mentioned before, this year has seen a lowered demand from buyers.  Normally, this drop in demand would create a surge in supply.  However, the first 3 quarters of 2014 also showed a dearth of sellers coming to market.  So what should have been a buyers’ market all year – evaporated in to a balanced market after the spring buying season due solely to the lack of sellers coming to market.  The market kept slowly building to a balanced market, only to in the last month, turn and ebb away from that balance point.  And so the seasonal effect is here. The turning point appeared in October when we saw small surges of supply add to the inventory accelerating the erosion.  It is certainly looking like we will begin 2015 back in a soft buyer’s market.

What does this signal for 2015?  Most pundits are predicting 2015 will be a more robust market than 2014 – and we agree that is likely.  But as real estate predictions have been notoriously difficult for a few years, let’s just focus on what we believe the largest factor is that will determine the 2015 market:  lending.

The current noose around the neck of real estate is limited lending.  We have expounded on this before, but it bears repeating.  As an answer to the ridiculously loose lending guidelines that preceded the housing collapse, lending regulations after the collapse were excessively tightened.  New loans issued reached the lowest levels of this century in 2014.  When credit is unavailable to the average buyer, they become renters. In fact that is just what happened in the valley – this year showed rapid increases in rental demand (and rental rates).  As a humorous way of making the point, we include this exchange as quoted in “Bloomberg”:

“Just between the two of us, ” Bernanke told the moderator at a recent conference of the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing and Care, “I recently tried to refinance my mortgage and I was unsuccessful in doing so,”

The audience laughed.

“I’m not making this up,” Bernanke insisted.

Bernanke also complained that stringent credit standards have made the process for first-time homebuyers excessively difficult, especially as economic conditions have improved. “The housing area is one area where regulation has not yet got it right,” Bernanke said. “I think the tightness of mortgage credit, lending is still probably excessive.”

“Probably excessive”. We agree.  With that said, we truly do believe lending restrictions will be eased.  Moderate lending restrictions, combined with attractive interest rates and a slowly improving economy should combine to make 2015 a cheerier year for real estate.  That is why we approach 2015 with some optimism.  Whether we are right or wrong, we will work hard to keep you updated on the market conditions as they shift.

Supply and Demand Remain the Story

October 7, 2014 by · Leave a Comment 

As we live and breathe real estate, even the tiniest variation of the same old news is interesting to us. It is our hope that we are not taxing our readers sharing the nuisances of this market.  The big headlines of 2005-2012 are gone, and frankly we couldn’t be happier.  What is good for selling papers, is rarely good for a marketplace because, in fact, drama sells.  So when you read the paper these days and it is claiming alarming trends in our market – a healthy suspicion should be maintained.  The lack of headline news on real estate is not a bad thing and october front page graphicnews should not be framed to make it so.

The story for over a year now has been supply and demand shifts. For over a year, demand has receded to very low levels.  It is understandable that this has created some concern, especially after the marketplace had adapted to being a demand oriented marketplace with investors gobbling up inventory at every opportunity.  At that time “normal” buyers were struggling to compete for properties as cash investors with insatiable appetites seemed to win every battle for a home.  By 2013 the investor portion of the market began withering away – a positive sign in a recovering market.  It is difficult to claim recovery at the same time you are known for being one of the best bargains around.  Vultures rarely circle a healthy animal.  So as the investor market returned to the small portion of the market demand looked anemic and alarming.  The investor withdrawal exposed what true demand existed, a fact that was obscured in the distress market.

So what is causing this low demand? We have addressed this before by discussing the economy, lending guidelines, and the millennials and their buying behaviors.   The one thing we strongly disagreed with as theories go, was the idea that real estate had somehow lost its appeal after the distress market.  If that were true, you would have never seen the high volume of the market in the midst of the distress – and the savviest of buyers (hedge funds) would not have come to Phoenix in force for a buying frenzy.  No the appeal of the West, and Phoenix in particular, for real estate remains.  Just as food never goes out of style, housing doesn’t either.  What does trend is renting vs. buying.  This year, in the valley, renting has jumped in demand as purchasing slumped.  This is a pendulum that moves from time to time depending on economic factors and net migration.  We are of the opinion that demand for housing is there and is being held down by the economic factor of severe lending constrictions resulting from the distress market.  If what fueled unprecedented demand acceleration in the marketplace (insanely loose lending guidelines) then the counter balance to low demand is overly constricted lending guidelines. As Sir Isaac Newton pointed out “for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction”.  We are not advocates for the insane lending that was going on in 2004 & 2005, but neither do we believe the Dodd/Frank bill and restrictions of this kind are any better.  There are valid purchasers who simply cannot get loans at this time due to the lenders fear now that lending risks have been placed back on their shoulders where they belonged all along.  Here are some interesting numbers by real estate expert Michael Orr of the Cromford Report:

“Approved home loans are the fuel that drives the housing market. The year 2000 was a relatively normal year for home loans. With roughly the same level of applications as in 2000, 15% more mortgage applications are being denied in 2014 than in 2000….” And…” The weighted credit score at origination for non-GSE loans stands at about 750. In 2006 it was 670.” (GSE = Government Sponsored Enterprise, as in Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac) 

Alarming? Not really, just the counter balanced reaction to over-lending.  As lenders only make money when they lend, eventually they will loosen their purse strings. It may take a year or two, but memories fade with time and the need to seek profit will likely show up eventually.

Normally such a pause in demand would send the market tipping strongly to a buyer’s market. Although demand faltered and did in fact create a buyer’s market last year, a rather unexpected shift followed – dropped supply.  Normal additions to supply from sellers placing their homes on the market failed to arrive and supply became constricted.  Let’s take the month of August as an example.  To quote Michael Orr:

“New listings have been arriving at a rate which is lower than in any August we have seen since 2001. In the last four weeks we saw 15.6% fewer new listings than last year and 13.2% fewer than in August 2012, the previous low record holder.

It is quite surprising that a slump in demand would be followed by a slump in supply, but it is certainly good news for sellers who might otherwise be facing growing competition from other sellers. If demand were to recover to normal levels now we could be facing a supply shortage fairly quickly.”

In fact, that supply has been so constricted that we have slowly and surely been moving away from a buyer’s market and into a fully balanced market, where we are now. Of course there are marketplaces within marketplaces – meaning there are areas and price points that are varying from this balanced picture. For instance, below 225K demand is showing a slight increase and so properties in this range may experience more than one offer.  Some areas are a “seller’s market” such as Sun City. It is best to get a supply/demand analysis of your specific area to understand “your marketplace”.

Mixed Messages

September 3, 2014 by · Leave a Comment 

It is understandable that both Buyers and Sellers (and if we are completely honest, most real estate agents)  are scratching their heads as to cromford new listings by month for travis sept SMALLthe state of this market.  We have listened to the sides argue we are in a “buyer’s market”, no wait we are in a “seller’s market”!  The underlying fact is that the real estate market is a moving target.  This means that the market conditions are in flux – there is what the market condition is now and then there is the lag until people know where the market is.  If you haven’t fallen asleep at that concept, let us share some interesting facts:

  1. Active listings are down 14% since March of this year. If you’re a seller – low supply – that sounds like a seller’s market doesn’t it?       Of course, if we compare active listings now to this time last year, we are up 28% in supply. That sounds like a buyer’s market doesn’t it?       See how confusing this gets?
  2. Price appreciation for the last year came in at a paltry 1.9% (for non-distress sales). By the way, inflation is running around 1.9%. So essentially, houses have not really appreciated in the last year. The seeds of weakness in pricing started with the market shift that began in 3rd quarter of 2013. But as we stated before, there is what is happening and then when the market knows what is happening – which can cause a lag in price changes.       Indeed this is the case as the softness in pricing that began a year ago finally showed up in this year’s 3rd quarter. So that’s a buyer’s market right?
  3. New listings coming to market began the year up 9% over last year’s new listings. But again, as the market is a moving target, new listings suddenly dried up as the 3rd quarter began, coming in 10% less than the same time in 2013 and 8% less than in 2012. This is notable because in 2012 new listings to market hit the lowest levels since 2000 – a shocking and record breaking event.       Yet in the 3rd quarter we hit the lowest new listings to market ever for this time period.       So that’s a seller’s market right?
  4. Demand was grabbing all the headlines this year, as buyer demand cooled significantly. The causes were attributed to tougher lending guidelines, interest rates climbing, Millennials (i.e. first time home buyers) not buying, and investors going away. Interest rates seemed like a red herring – as when rates dropped there was no corresponding jump in demand. Millennials are in fact not buying. This has been attributed to “seeing their parents lose their homes in the distress market”. Hmmmm, maybe. Millennials seem to be delaying all traditional signposts of adulthood – marriage, children and housing – so it would seem to be a cultural change in commitment, not housing per se. It is certainly causing a boom in rental demand at the moment. Investor demand definitely shifted – going from 33.5% of the single family market purchases in 2012 to only 11.8% in 2014. So, no matter the cause, if buyer demand drops that’s a buyer’s market right?

So let’s try to answer that nagging question. The market is swinging slowly and surely back towards a balanced market primarily due to the weakest arrival of new listings in 14 years.   But, if that is the state of the overall market – it does not preclude the fact that the market is really a series of markets within a market.  Depending on price and location – some markets are definitely in a seller’s market and some are most definitely in a buyer’s market.  How can a consumer know the reality of their market?  At the risk of sounding self-serving you need the analysis of a competent real estate professional.  The study and accurate interpretation of supply and demand in the submarkets is the only way to truly understand your marketplace.  As always we are here to help.  Our thanks go to the one and only Michael Orr for his incredible Cromford Report statistics.

Home Fur Good Animal Shelter – Low Cost Clinic

August 23, 2014 by · Leave a Comment 

home fur good logoLocal animal shelter offers low cost vaccine and microchip clinic on Sundays from 11-3pm.

Home Fur Good Animal Rescue and Placement is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, no kill shelter located at 10220 North 32nd Street, just south of Shea Blvd.   Home Fur Good has been in operation since 2009.  In January of this year, Home Fur Good moved into its new location and has been warmly welcomed by the community.

Home Fur Good’s mission is to eliminate the euthanasia of treatable, adoptable animals in Maricopa County through adoption placements, medical treatment, promotion of spay and neuter and community awareness.  The low cost vaccine and microchip clinic is open to other rescues and to the public.  The shelter itself is open to the public Thursdays through Saturdays from 11am to 4pm for adoptions. The shelter houses approximately 35 dogs and includes a free roam cat room.  Home Fur Good also does weekend adoptions at the Petsmart located at Tatum and Shea Blvd.  This shelter has rescued over 1,700 cats and dogs since its inception.   Please visit their website: www.homefurgood.org for additional information, photos of adoptable animals and ways to help, including volunteering.

The Scales of Supply and Demand Continue to Tip

July 2, 2014 by · Leave a Comment 

When demand started declining near the end of 2013, the inception of the buyer’s market had begun.  Market watchers held their breath praying for demand to show up – fearing without demand jumping the pile up of inventory that typically occurs in the back half of the year would become an avalanche – but the market shifted again. The normal pile-up of supply failed to show up in significant numbers.  To date, 2014 has proven to be a bit of a head scratcher.  Where does that leave us now?

The best summary of the market comes from our favorite pundit Michael Orr of the Cromford Report:

“The total number of active listings has dropped every day since May 31. Although demand remains very low by normal standards, the lack of a build up in inventory is a slightly encouraging sign for sellers….. Phoenix and Scottsdale have seen a 6% fall in active listings over the last month, while Surprise is down 10%. Chandler is the only major city showing a large gain in inventory with 9% more than one month ago.

As is often the case for this time of year, we see massive drops in inventory for Sun Lakes (down 23%), and for Sun City and Sun City West (both down 13%)

Sellers would dearly like to see a more balanced market than we have experienced in the last 8 months. If demand won’t increase, then a reduction in supply (after adjusting for seasonality) will have the equally welcome effect of improving their negotiating power.

The market balance is still weighted towards buyers, but not quite as much as in April. Demand fell back again in May after some improvement in April, but supply dropped a little faster during May than we expected and this has compensated for the weakening demand. Overall we are not seeing much change over the last few months and we are still eagerly waiting for some more significant developments, one way or the other. Boring is the worst situation if you are in the analysis and commentary business. Luckily Phoenix rarely stays boring for long.

Some misguided souls are still blaming the weak demand on interest rates. Given that rates have moved lower over the last few months and are not far about historic lows, this does not hold water. The best I can say about that point of view is that it is more credible than blaming the weather, especially across the southwest where demand has fallen hardest.

Now we are seeing an increasing number of commentators adding to the discussion of what we believe are more realistic causes of the continued weak demand for homes to buy, not just in Phoenix but across much of the country:

  • low participation by first time home buyers
  • the inhibiting effects of massive student loan debt
  • millennials preference for the flexibility of renting
  • the foreclosure wave in 2008 through 2012 which has introduced a new sensitivity to the fact that home ownership can sometimes be financially hazardous
  • a large tranche of former home owners who have not yet repaired their credit enough to re-enter the market
  • low rates of household formation, especially among 20-30 year-olds
  • a growing wealth gap causing stronger demand for high end homes but leaving large numbers of people renting for the foreseeable future

…With demand having been so weak over the last 10 months it is natural to assume that the market might see an improvement in demand as the next step. This might be dampened by the usual seasonal increase in supply that tends to occur in the second half of each year. However, the current readings suggest the opposite of what we might have expected. Demand is actually weakening a little compared with last month. On the other hand supply is also failing to show any strength and is now fading to a greater degree than demand.  In other words the market for homes to buy is contracting in size….”

So again, we ask ‘where does that leave the valley’s real estate market at the moment?’  We remain in a gentle buyer’s market.  However, a tip in either demand or supply will change the market dynamic. History says demand can increase rather rapidly – especially if buyer’s find a reason to buy (higher rents, lower interest rates, flat or declining prices, etc.)  Will it?  We will keep you posted as the future unfolds.

Market Values – Who really knows?

June 18, 2014 by · Leave a Comment 

Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially About the Future – Niels Bohr (1885-1962)

Niels Bohr certainly knew what he was talking about –and the intervening years have done nothing to change that sentiment.  Buyers and sellers, and their agents, have continued to struggle to interpret our market movements.  As most of our readers know, demand – and the lack thereof – has been the defining element in this market.  Much speculation has formed around this issue – with some just ignoring 2014 altogether and predicting demand will be “normal” by 2015. Any lacking demand in the resale market has most assuredly shown up in the rental market as people must live somewhere – causing available rentals to drop to very low numbers, in the range of only a 30 day supply.  Escalating demand for rentals eventually result in escalating demand for homeownership as rental rates rise.  At some point it becomes much more attractive financially to own than to rent.

If dramatic market shifts aren’t stressful enough to try to predict and understand, now add in valuation challenges.  Whether buying or selling, determining the value of the home in a highly unpredictable market can be difficult.  The more challenging the establishment of value, the more consumers seem to want to take research in to their own hands.  Uncertainty seems to create the need for multiple sources of information- i.e. automated valuations from the internet. The most famous of these sources (or in our opinion, infamous) is Zillow.  This begs the question – to whom should you trust the valuation of your largest asset or purchase?  To whom should you turn to understand the market trends and shifts?  Understandably, we have our own bias – but let us defer this issue to the one and only Michael Orr of the Cromford Report:  

“Unfortunately Zillow® has decided to provide 12-month forecasts for home values. Since the figure given is a forecast for the Zestimate® value, it does not necessarily have any relationship to real market value. On the other hand, this means it can never really be challenged because the Zestimate is created by Zillow in the first place. In the past Zillow Zestimate’s have often been greatly divergent from real market values. In the cases I have watched they have often been extremely volatile for no apparent reason, sometimes rising or falling by 10% or more in just a few weeks. I have also seen Zestimates that were 80% below or 200% above true market value, though this sort of aberration seems to be getting rarer.

In the past Zillow forecasts for the wider market have not proven to be at all accurate, so I despair at the thought that ordinary members of the public will take them seriously for individual homes. Giving a percentage change to one decimal place gives a false impression of precision for a number that is more likely to be wildly wrong than close to accurate.

In the case of my own home, Zillow is forecasting a loss in Zestimate of 1.3% over the next 12 months. That doesn’t seem too unlikely, quite frankly, but their Zestimate for my home has dropped 2.9% in just the last month and 8.2% in the last 6 months. In fact 6 months ago their Zestimate for my home was ludicrously high – some 20% higher than any other automated valuation I could find. Meanwhile Trulia’s estimated value for the same home has rocketed upward in the opposite direction during the same 6 months and they are now higher than Zillow. Home owners tend to believe the highest number they can find. The variation between these automated valuation tools is enormous and there is no evidence that Zillow’s is better (or indeed any worse) than the 25 or so other tools I have seen.

The fact is that a real appraisal or professional CMA are the only sensible ways to estimate a home value. Even these can vary a lot depending on who conducted them, and Zillow’s Zestimate numbers really should be used for entertainment purposes only. As long as they are used purely for entertainment value they not a problem. Unfortunately ordinary members of the public tend to think there is some real world basis for them, which provides nothing but problems for real estate professions who actually know what they are talking about.

For those interested in how accurate Zillow’s forecasts have been in the past … Zillow Chief Economist: Stan Humphries … in February 2012 predicted that Phoenix metro home values would increase by 0.6% between December 31, 2011 and December 31, 2012.

The actual change in average $/SF was 29.5%, so Zillow was only wrong by 28.9 percentage points.

For the country as a whole, Stan predicted a 3.7% decline in values during 2012 and no housing bottom before 2013. Funny how they never mention that any more.

The Zillow prediction for 2013 was for national home values to rise by 3.3%. Phoenix area values were predicted to rise by 8.5%. Phoenix actually rose by 16.7% in 2013 and the national increase was about 13%. Again there is almost no correlation between Zillow’s forecast and what actually happens. However I must admit that the 2013 forecast was a big improvement over the 2012 one.

In case you think I am picking on Zillow, I am not. Their forecast was actually better than many. We quote Jed Kelko, Chief Economist at Trulia: “Arizona’s home prices are going to fall by 7.2% between Q3 2011 and Q3 2012″. That was possibly the worst forecast in recent history, as average $/SF rose by 26.5% instead. Trulia’s error was 33.7 percentage points. Even this was not quite as bad as several forecasts produced between 2006 and 2012 by S&P / Case-Shiller / Moody’s Analytics many of which have been proven dramatically wrong during that 7 year period…”

If you really want to know what your home is worth, just ask.  I’m not bragging, I’m applying for a job …

From the Cromford Report’s Michael Orr

May 16, 2014 by · Leave a Comment 

Unfortunately Zillow® has decided to provide 12-month forecasts for home values. Since the figure given is a forecast for the Zestimate® value, it does not necessarily have any relationship to real market value. On the other hand, this means it can never really be challenged because the Zestimate is created by Zillow in the first place. In the past Zillow Zestimate’s have often been greatly divergent from real market values. In the cases I have watched they have often been extremely volatile for no apparent reason, sometimes rising or falling by 10% or more in just a few weeks. I have also seen Zestimates that were 80% below or 200% above true market value, though this sort of aberration seems to be getting rarer.

In the past Zillow forecasts for the wider market have not proven to be at all accurate, so I despair at the thought that ordinary members of the public will take them seriously for individual homes. Giving a percentage change to one decimal place gives a false impression of precision for a number that is more likely to be wildly wrong than close to accurate.

In the case of my own home, Zillow is forecasting a loss in Zestimate of 1.3% over the next 12 months. That doesn’t seem too unlikely, quite frankly, but their Zestimate for my home has dropped 2.9% in just the last month and 8.2% in the last 6 months. In fact 6 months ago their Zestimate for my home was ludicrously high – some 20% higher than any other automated valuation I could find. Meanwhile Trulia’s estimated value for the same home has rocketed upward in the opposite direction during the same 6 months and they are now higher than Zillow. Home owners tend to believe the highest number they can find. The variation between these automated valuation tools is enormous and there is no evidence that Zillow’s is better (or indeed any worse) than the 25 or so other tools I have seen.

The fact is that a real appraisal or professional CMA are the only sensible ways to estimate a home value. Even these can vary a lot depending on who conducted them, and Zillow’s Zestimate numbers really should be used for entertainment purposes only. As long as they are used purely for entertainment value they not a problem. Unfortunately ordinary members of the public tend to think there is some real world basis for them, which provides nothing but problems for real estate professions who actually know what they are talking about.

For those interested in how accurate Zillow’s forecasts have been in the past, take a look here:

http://www.zillow.com/research/home-value-declines-pick-up-in-fourth-quarter-but-zillow-forecasts-smaller-declines-in-2012-2282/

In February 2012 Zillow predicted that Phoenix metro home values would increase by 0.6% between December 31, 2011 and December 31, 2012.

The actual change in average $/SF was 29.5%, so Zillow was only wrong by 28.9 percentage points.

For the country as a whole, Stan predicted a 3.7% decline in values during 2012 and no housing bottom before 2013. Funny how they never mention that any more.

The Zillow prediction for 2013 was for national home values to rise by 3.3%. Phoenix area values were predicted to rise by 8.5%. Phoenix actually rose by 16.7% in 2013 and the national increase was about 13%. Again there is almost no correlation between Zillow’s forecast and what actually happens. However I must admit that the 2013 forecast was a big improvement over the 2012 one.

In case you think I am picking on Zillow, I am not. Their forecast was actually better than many. We quote Jed Kelko, Chief Economist at Trulia: “Arizona’s home prices are going to fall by 7.2% between Q3 2011 and Q3 2012″. That was possibly the worst forecast in recent history, as average $/SF rose by 26.5% instead. Trulia’s error was 33.7 percentage points. Even this was not quite as bad as several forecasts produced between 2006 and 2012 by S&P / Case-Shiller / Moody’s Analytics many of which have been proven dramatically wrong during that 7 year period.

Remember the wise words: Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially About the Future – Niels Bohr (1885-1962)

 

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